June 2018

We had an amazing month with the S Fund. With an almost 7% difference between the S Fund and I Fund performance, those who did not understand the risks of the tariffs on the market paid the price. Today we saw President Trump make good on his promise to put America first; over the old alliances of even the EU, Canada, and Mexico with tariffs on steel and aluminum. There will undoubtedly be counter tariffs from these countries, but I think their leverage is not as great as many economists think. Our current account balance is so large that they will have to apply tariffs to the vast majority of our export, hurting their own population more than the US. Along with the side effects of the tariffs on overseas economies, the political disruption in Italy on the EU will also continue to cause ripples in the overseas markets, affecting three of the five main I Fund countries of France, Germany and Switzerland. I am still long on the S Fund for June for the reasons I am not long for the I Fund above. Additionally, the C Fund has too much exposure to the international markets, and as such could experience some of the blow backs of the tariffs and political turmoil. Finally, we might still get our summit with North Korea. I think it is truly unknown what the US and the DPRK might agree to and hence any benefit to the Japanese economy, and the I Fund, is unknown. Keep Investing!