August 2019

Despite all the back and forth this month about the Fed rate cute and the anticlimactic result, we still had a pretty good month. A solid 1.44% return in a month with lingering Chinese trade issues, Brexit, and a revised GDP is nice to see. With no change in the status quo: - we walked away from trade negotiations, - Brexit is still going to happen (controlled or uncontrolled), and - the Federal Reserve gave themselves flexibility by cutting but then tempering expectations for another cut, I expect returns in future months (3-4 months) to be fairly flat. Based on my analysis we are out of the Trump economy and into a cycle of uncertainty characterized by a downturn in housing, a reduction in GDP, and lingering issues across the world (North Korea, Iran, China, etc.). The fact the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates, the first time since 2008, will make people concerned enough to move some of their investments into bonds. Although I have concerns, they do not warrant the removal of my investments out of the C Fund. I'm still 100% C Fund. As I have mentioned in previous monthly posts, I never invest in the F Fund unless I have the strongest possible signal to move all of my investment into it-there is just too much opportunity loss to be wrong. There are more bears than bulls in the market, and I do extra due diligence before moving into the F Fund. In short, the economy is still strong, the market will probably be tepid, but not tepid enough to lose out on 0.5%-1% a month for the next few months. Keep investing!