June 2019

Markets hate uncertainty and instability, and we certainly have plenty of both right now. As I stated a couple of months ago, my numbers are showing a similar amount of uncertainty as they did during the election of 2016. Back then it was easy to pinpoint a cause to the uncertainty. There were two events impacting the markets, the US election and the recently decided Brexit. Two and a half years later we are still in election mode with all of the investigations, and then we have witnessed the collapse of the UK government over, Brexit. Added to these stressors are trade war with China, which has escalated quite a bit and a new front on the Southern border with new tariffs on Mexico. Additionally, the quants are pointing to various bond yields, housing prices, and various other harbingers of doom to make the case for a downturn in the economy. In one news story "First-quarter economic growth up 3.1%, slightly better than Wall Street expected" while another stated "Corporate profits fall again as GDP in first quarter trimmed". Both stories talk about a GDP of 3.1%! So where am I investing in June? We have already suffered a pretty significant downturn in the market this month. It has now priced in the escalated trade war no one thought would occur until the Chinese reneged on the negotiations. The US has plenty of GDP left to continue to pressure China, and I think the US will stay the course and still come out ahead. Second, our economy is still strong and to move funds out of the C Fund would be taking a loss, especially if a resolution is found soon. I think the market has priced in most of the volatility, I'm still 100% C Fund.