March 2019

We have lots to cover this month. Ironic that it is the shortest month of the year. GDP numbers came out today. It is very interesting to read the news reports. CNBC, once a financial news powerhouse in its day, touted the fact that annual GDP numbers came in at 2.9%, just missing the 3.0% predicted by the President. They seemed almost jubilant that the economists forecast a decline in GDP for the next two years. Then take the news reports that year-over-year, GDP actually grew at 3.1%. Bottom line, you have to read, listen, and watch the news with a critical eye, and although we are not at a breakneck pace of +4% GDP, 2.9%-3.1% growth for a mature economy is very nice and leads me to believe we will continue to see a prosperous stock market. Next in the news this month is North Korea and China. You cannot consider one without the other. As the President walked away from the negotiating table, the specter of tariffs and China came back into the forefront. The tariff war, while having an impact on our economy, is still much more devastating to the Chinese economy. In the long-term, we should win this battle, and the long-term impact on the C and S Fund should be increased growth as those companies gain access to markets (the US included) that were previously off-limits due to the lower priced Chinese goods. As for the bluster in Congress, I do not think the market either cares or believes our economy is tied to anything the investigations will do. The Trump economy is in motion for the next two years regardless, and the stock market has shown a great resilience to these disruptions. I'm still bullish on the S and the C Fund, but I'm investing 100% in the S Fund this month. Keep investing!