October 2019

Wow, what a difference a month makes. Frankly, I am incredibly surprised how tumultuous our political environment has become and how stable the stock market still is. I could not, would not, and still can't believe in the impeachment efforts underway and how disruptive they will be if they continue for another month. Companies, already fearing a recession, because "it's been so long we are due" are going to make decisions now with a lens showing a disruptive political class and possible changes to the tax code. The result could be to slow down hiring, stop new initiatives, and restrict capital investments. All these decisions across thousands of companies will create a downturn in the economy. If and when we see it is still to be determined, and the politics of our great nation will greatly dictate its occurrence. So, where do I stand, firmly in the C Fund. As negative as I sound, I still think we have a strong bargaining position with China on trade, and we will come out on top. Brexit, a complete mess, has been factored in-companies are prepared for either scenario and international stocks have already taken a haircut. The uptick on the I Fund this month is the trend toward an additional delay and the possible revote of Brexit entirely. We will see. We are all investing for the long term. These short-term news cycles seem to have less and less of an effect on the market and fundamentals seems to be the driving force-see the recent IPO failures if you doubt me. Keep investing!