April 2020

I wish I had a better monthly summary to write. We are obviously witnessing history, and we are seeing a pandemic we have not seen for 100 years. Couple the pandemic with global markets, 24-hour media, social media, and Dr. Google and you have a complete, albeit temporary, collapse of everything we understand. As a result, we have the results to the left: -21.40% for the S Fund. Uncertainty is driving the markets and right now no one is certain of the economic outcome of this pandemic. I will not tell you that I can call the bottom of the market and that next month has to be positive, but what I will say is we have fallen so far, I'm certain we can't fall much further. As I write this the peak impacts for the US seem to be between 10 and 30 days away, depending on the cities. Once we near the peak days, certainty will begin to return. Once there is certainty to the opening date to our economy, investors, businesses, and the government will begin to take stock of what was lost and how to recover, and the real impact will be known. I am almost certain the market has overreacted, and if I were to transfer out of my C Fund and move to the F or G Fund, I would be making the wrong move. Finally, I think it is worth noting, as I have on several occasion, investments in the TSP are NOT short-term. Except for the very few who are nearing 70, the TSP is a long-term investment vehicle, and one cannot time the market. This month?s wild swings were evidence of that fallacy. Stay calm and keep investing!