January 2020

Happy New Year and Happy New Decade! Welcome to 2020 and what will probably be a very dynamic year for the stock market yet again. I find it very interesting that the very themes I was discussing back in 2016 are going to be relevant again this year. We finally have a Brexit solution (again), we have what looks to be another highly contested US Presidential election, and we have trade issues. One would think with all of the turmoil present in the news, the stock market and the US economy would not be very strong. There are discussions about US monetary policy and interest rates creating a bubble in the market. If you look at the performance of the stock market for the past decade this appears to be true. We have quantitative easing in the early part of the decade to help us recover from the Great Recession and now, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates yet again to stave off what might have been a small recession in the US. Lower interest rates may have cuase and unintentional bubble, but only time will tell if a correction is required. It is certainly true that many countries are right at the brink of a recession or may already be in one. That the US may have dodged a recession last year when other nation did not, is in my view, positive. For January, I'm back int the C Fund 100%. I think the Chinese trade deal which should be announced in mid-January and Brexit have all been priced in the I Fund and the C Fund being a bigger recipient. I am also keeping an eye on the proposed I Fund changes. Keep investing!