November 2020

It is fair to say the election is driving everything in the market. I try to stay very apolitical in these writings, as politics in a financial form never mix well, especially in today's world. I will continue to not play that card and make my investments and comments based on the facts. With the election just around the corner and peak uncertainty just about to be cranked up to eleven, I have thought very long about November's allocation to balance the risk of so many factors versus the possible rewards. My allocation is as follows-100% S Fund. I have arrived at this allocation through three factors. First, my system of measured risk is giving me a strong indicator for the S Fund. Second, I think the uncertainty in the election and COVID has now been almost fully priced into the markets. Third, the election, while probably close and with the outcome being contested for a week or so, will have a resolution before Thanksgiving. This might be a bold prediction, but even with extended deadlines to receive votes in some of the toss up states, I think the results will be clear much sooner than some expect. With a decided election before Thanksgiving, we should have a stimulus plan, a direction on COVID (lockdowns vs opening), and a better understanding of what the next 4 years will look like. All of these factors should benefit the market. The S Fund has been a performer of late, and while all the funds are susceptible to the international economy, the S Fund is less so and stands to gain from the US extending its GDP growth. With everything I have said, know your risk tolerance but always keep investing!