Fund	Tracks / index	Share price	Prior price	Day change
F · F Fund Fixed Income Index Investment Fund	Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index	20.8085	20.7483	+0.29%
C · C Fund Common Stock Index Investment Fund	S&P 500 Index	122.3804	124.6356	-1.81%
S · S Fund Small Cap Stock Index Investment Fund	Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index	111.6279	114.0007	-2.08%
I · I Fund International Stock Index Investment Fund	International equities (historically MSCI EAFE; broader ex-U.S. indexes may apply)	62.7535	63.7168	-1.51%

Fund

Tracks / index

Share price

Prior price

Day change

F · F Fund

Fixed Income Index Investment Fund

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index

20.8085

20.7483

+0.29%

C · C Fund

Common Stock Index Investment Fund

S&P 500 Index

122.3804

124.6356

-1.81%

S · S Fund

Small Cap Stock Index Investment Fund

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index

111.6279

114.0007

-2.08%

I · I Fund

International Stock Index Investment Fund

International equities (historically MSCI EAFE; broader ex-U.S. indexes may apply)

62.7535

63.7168

-1.51%

Monthly allocation

Vegas Or Bust?

August 01, 2025 · Monthly Allocation

Allocation percentages for August 2025

F Fund 0%

C Fund 63%

S Fund 0%

I Fund 37%

Welcome to August!

First, the U.S. economy showed impressive resilience with Q2 GDP growth clocking in at an annualized 3.0%. This not only beat economists' estimates of 2.3% but also erased the worry of Q1's 0.5% decline, flipping the narrative from slowdown fears to solid expansion.

Consumer spending, business investment, and inventory builds drove the surge, despite lingering inflation pressures. It's a reminder that the U.S. economy can surprise to the upside, even in a high-rate environment. This GDP beat bolsters my tilt toward the C Fund, as domestic equities often thrive on such momentum.

Shifting to the Federal Reserve's July decision: no rate cut, a bit of a surprise to me, with the federal funds rate being held steady at 4.25%-4.50. The Federal Reserve cited still-elevated inflation and a robust labor market as reasons to not cut. But here's the twist—two governors dissented, pushing for an immediate cut, marking a rare fracture in consensus

Finally, let's talk Las Vegas—a microcosm of consumer trends that is sometimes used as a canary in the coal mine to predict a recession. Las Vegas is seeing a contraction, with hotel occupancy plunging 15% in June and potentially worsening into July. Tourism numbers are down, casino revenues are slipping, and Nevada's unemployment is ticking up amid broader economic anxiety, inflation bites, and geopolitical jitters

However, based on other trends in the younger generations, I’m not sure we can use Las Vegas as the canary anymore. The average visitor age has dropped to around 43, with millennials and Gen Z making up a larger share. These younger crowds are putting less into traditional gambling and more into experiences like concerts, e-sports, and high-end dining.

Vegas is adapting with new attractions, but the shift could signal broader consumer evolution—away from vice-driven spending (these younger generations drink less too) toward experienced-based entertainment. I bring this up as I have seen many different economists use different tools to forecast recessions, and I don’t think Vegas fits the bill anymore.

Overall, these developments paint a picture of an economy that’s strong but continues to suffer from a high Federal Funds interest rate. The GDP pop and Fed dissent fuel near-term upside for U.S. equities, justifying my continued shift to the C Fund, but as long as international interest rates are low, the international funds will still remain appealing. Keep investing!

Last 12 month TSP returns

G Fund

F Fund

C Fund

S Fund

I Fund

80% C / 20% S

TSP Coach

TSP fund quotes

Latest stored share prices for context with this post. Scroll sideways on small screens.

Date	L Income	L 2030	L 2035	L 2040	L 2045	L 2050	L 2055	L 2060	L 2065	L 2070	L 2075	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund
2026-10-30	31.0162	62.9955	19.3122	74.3535	20.6470	45.9113	24.0374	24.0342	24.0307	14.2422	12.4406	20.3495	20.8085	122.3804	111.6279	62.7535
2026-10-29	31.1583	63.5575	19.5311	75.2739	20.9212	46.5631	24.4586	24.4553	24.4517	14.4917	12.6585	20.3434	20.7483	124.6356	114.0007	63.7168
Daily Change	-0.46%	-0.88%	-1.12%	-1.22%	-1.31%	-1.4%	-1.72%	-1.72%	-1.72%	-1.72%	-1.72%	0.03%	0.29%	-1.81%	-2.08%	-1.51%
Month to Date	0.02%	-0.45%	-0.71%	-0.82%	-0.91%	-1.01%	-1.48%	-1.48%	-1.48%	-1.48%	-1.48%	0.46%	2.47%	-0.87%	-0.4%	-2.89%
Year to Date	6.06%	8.43%	9.24%	9.69%	10.08%	10.49%	12.17%	12.17%	12.17%	12.16%	12.16%	3.89%	-0.35%	11.75%	11.17%	13.09%
Details	L Income	L 2030	L 2035	L 2040	L 2045	L 2050	L 2055	L 2060	L 2065	L 2070	L 2075	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund

Year¹	TSP Coach
2005	2.66%
2006	2.46%
2007	2.82%
2008	4.10%
2009	1.85%
2010	6.00%
2011	5.89%
2012	1.89%
2013	2.71%
2014	2.50%
2015	3.69%
2016	2.91%
2017	0.90%
2018	4.38%
2019	3.76%
2020	8.01%
2021	3.02%
2022	6.07%
2023	4.62%
2024	2.84%
2025	2.98%
2026	4.75%
As of:	10/30/2026

L Income	L 2030	L 2035	L 2040	L 2045	L 2050	L 2055	L 2060	L 2065	L 2070	L 2075	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund
											0.04%	0.84%	2.16%	3.32%	2.77%
0.37%	1.48%		1.70%								0.04%	0.73%	1.56%	3.06%	2.60%
0.49%	1.90%		2.16%								0.05%	0.73%	2.68%	3.00%	2.77%
1.29%	4.72%		5.40%								0.05%	1.69%	5.82%	7.61%	7.47%
1.36%	4.78%		5.45%								0.03%	0.92%	6.16%	7.12%	7.65%
1.07%	3.91%		4.49%								0.04%	0.80%	5.32%	6.07%	6.56%
0.95%	3.38%		3.89%								0.04%	0.64%	4.41%	6.00%	5.43%
0.65%	2.30%		2.64%								0.01%	0.56%	2.91%	3.44%	4.59%
0.51%	1.68%		1.94%								0.03%	0.88%	2.35%	2.89%	3.29%
0.49%	1.61%		1.87%								0.01%	0.63%	2.28%	3.48%	2.71%
0.71%	2.36%		2.72%								0.02%	0.82%	3.78%	3.58%	4.11%
0.59%	1.96%		2.29%								0.02%	1.03%	2.84%	4.47%	3.47%
0.16%	0.50%		0.59%								0.01%	0.43%	1.09%	1.42%	1.17%
0.77%	2.34%		2.79%								0.02%	0.86%	4.24%	4.92%	3.45%
0.69%	2.06%		2.47%								0.03%	0.95%	3.56%	4.68%	3.16%
1.63%	4.54%		5.43%								0.03%	0.95%	7.18%	10.19%	7.30%
0.62%	1.61%	1.76%	1.91%	2.05%	2.18%	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%			0.02%	0.79%	3.05%	3.29%	2.76%
1.59%	3.79%	4.16%	4.52%	4.83%	5.13%	6.05%	6.05%	6.06%			0.07%	2.34%	6.21%	6.87%	6.42%
1.21%	2.76%	3.04%	3.31%	3.54%	3.76%	4.39%	4.39%	4.39%			0.04%	2.35%	4.07%	6.44%	4.60%
0.83%	1.82%	2.00%	2.17%	2.32%	2.46%	2.89%	2.89%	2.89%	2.88%		0.02%	1.64%	2.95%	5.13%	2.98%
0.67%	1.52%	1.67%	1.82%	1.95%	2.08%	2.52%	2.52%	2.52%	2.52%	1.10%	0.01%	0.79%	3.04%	4.29%	1.91%
1.18%	2.36%	2.79%	3.04%	3.25%	3.47%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	0.04%	1.44%	4.00%	4.36%	5.22%
¹Life starting dates for TSP funds are August 31, 2004. TSP Coach strategy has been in use since August 2004.

Year	TSP Coach
2005	10.98%
2006	23.57%
2007	10.68%
2008	-8.50%
2009	16.83%
2010	25.23%
2011	-1.61%
2012	27.39%
2013	34.94%
2014	12.67%
2015	1.56%
2016	5.37%
2017	17.89%
2018	6.56%
2019	29.24%
2020	37.47%
2021	17.60%
2022	-15.35%
2023	22.25%
2024	13.28%
CAGR	13.57%
CAGR L10Y	12.48%
CAGR L5Y	6.63%
CAGR L3Y	11.46%
As of: 01/01/2025

TSP X1^	TSP X2^	TSP Z*	TSP V*	TSP U*	TSP T*	TSP R*^	TSP Q	TSP P*
6.10%	12.90%	21.79%				19.24%	5.63%	8.54%
10.70%	22.10%	15.25%		10.88%	27.96%	21.47%	15.22%	16.11%
4.20%	2.10%	9.32%		5.33%	21.32%	16.27%	7.60%	5.82%
-6.10%	-15.40%	-7.56%	-5.53%	-10.21%	-6.14%	10.59%	2.64%	-1.87%
8.60%	19.60%	23.30%	20.94%	4.98%	6.62%	36.87%	10.74%	24.61%
7.50%	20.40%	14.54%	29.18%	4.15%	35.16%	15.63%	11.25%	22.86%
4.30%	-0.70%	5.07%	8.44%	4.66%	-10.27%	5.54%	2.63%	15.01%
7.40%	12.00%	-4.60%	13.13%	10.88%	20.62%	-2.15%	6.49%	16.41%
10.30%	17.80%	12.54%	15.39%	18.32%	28.56%	15.42%	15.50%	20.72%
3.80%	5.00%	22.73%	12.91%	10.01%	11.98%	14.69%	8.75%	2.59%
1.20%	40.00%	13.07%	11.82%	2.55%	7.84%	10.39%	-6.93%	0.71%
3.60%	6.10%	4.71%	1.66%	7.79%	5.77%	4.73%	5.75%	10.75%
8.50%	15.00%	16.51%	16.51%	11.79%	8.19%	16.84%	12.46%	14.79%
-2.30%	-6.20%	-0.17%	-2.50%	-3.59%	4.36%	2.26%	-0.26%	-7.61%
11.50%	21.90%	21.42%	0.80%	13.37%	15.48%	20.51%	4.41%	28.31%
7.44%	8.36%		8.20%	23.48%	-1.87%	17.18%	10.16%
8.24%	15.12%		17.51%	17.46%	12.06%	11.38%	5.09%
-4.78%	-10.86%		-30.80%	38.00%	1.03%	-9.66%	-5.45%
11.70%	16.77%		10.01%	12.28%	29.00%	10.12%	10.03%
11.88%	16.83%		14.31%	13.97%	23.72%	25.49%	10.10%
5.56%	10.21%	7.97%	7.03%	9.36%	11.38%	12.70%	6.43%	8.43%
5.42%	7.79%	3.99%	2.56%	12.93%	9.35%	9.41%	5.09%	4.19%
5.19%	6.96%		0.45%	15.71%	12.56%	6.82%	3.78%
7.71%	10.91%		7.94%	8.57%	16.86%	11.38%	6.60%

Year	TSP Coach
Initial	$10,000
2005	$11,038
2006	$13,580
2007	$14,970
2008	$13,638
2009	$15,873
2010	$19,817
2011	$19,438
2012	$24,703
2013	$33,274
2014	$37,429
2015	$37,953
2016	$39,931
2017	$47,015
2018	$50,039
2019	$64,611
2020	$88,760
2021	$104,322
2022	$88,249
2023	$107,824
2024	$122,083
CAGR	13.33%
CAGR L10Y	12.39%
CAGR L5Y	6.58%
CAGR L3Y	11.42%
As of: 01/01/2025

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Vegas Or Bust?

Last 12 month TSP returns

TSP fund quotes

Allocation history

TSP X1^	TSP X2^	TSP Z*	TSP V*	TSP U*	TSP T*	TSP R*^	TSP Q	TSP P*
$10,000	$10,000	$10,000				$10,000	$10,000	$10,000
$10,460	$11,140	$11,920		$11,038	$11,038	$11,665	$10,414	$10,755
$11,429	$13,452	$13,478		$12,040	$13,945	$13,909	$11,850	$12,389
$11,759	$13,585	$14,474	$14,970	$12,483	$16,739	$15,913	$12,602	$13,011
$10,892	$11,343	$13,121	$13,942	$11,009	$15,533	$17,339	$12,785	$12,668
$11,679	$13,416	$15,918	$16,662	$11,358	$16,382	$23,472	$14,009	$15,687
$12,405	$16,003	$17,973	$21,324	$11,631	$21,963	$26,881	$15,437	$19,174
$12,788	$15,741	$18,625	$22,923	$11,974	$19,528	$28,111	$15,694	$21,953
$13,585	$17,480	$17,509	$25,733	$13,078	$23,376	$27,247	$16,563	$25,457
$14,834	$20,441	$19,445	$29,493	$15,274	$29,873	$31,189	$18,981	$30,632
$15,248	$21,313	$23,605	$33,101	$16,604	$33,273	$35,511	$20,493	$31,327
$15,281	$29,689	$26,431	$36,813	$16,829	$35,702	$38,941	$18,924	$31,450
$15,681	$31,350	$27,416	$37,225	$17,941	$37,583	$40,523	$19,863	$34,732
$16,864	$35,902	$31,683	$43,170	$19,857	$40,482	$47,088	$22,189	$39,770
$16,326	$33,526	$31,370	$41,891	$18,945	$42,068	$47,893	$21,982	$36,644
$18,054	$40,719	$37,830	$42,026	$21,279	$48,402	$57,456	$22,803
$19,246	$43,971		$45,272	$26,076	$47,317	$67,068	$24,971
$20,682	$50,471		$52,999	$30,430	$52,845	$74,440	$26,093
$19,543	$44,839		$36,476	$41,795	$53,210	$66,990	$24,521
$21,681	$52,207		$39,927	$46,728	$68,462	$73,510	$26,832
$24,106	$60,845		$45,440	$53,057	$84,522	$91,988	$29,393
4.50%	9.45%		6.36%	8.17%	10.71%	11.73%	5.54%
4.66%	7.44%		2.13%	12.17%	9.00%	8.98%	4.50%
4.61%	6.71%		0.07%	15.27%	12.30%	6.52%	3.31%
7.24%	10.71%		7.60%	8.28%	16.68%	11.15%	6.23%