April 2021

The past 60 days has seen a pretty sloppy market. I did not feel comfortable taking the market risk associated with all the uncertainty in stimulus payments, Federal Reserve policy, and basic economic indicators as we emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. While I have taken some losses this month, the percentage move for the entire month of the F Fund is less than daily moves (positive or negative) seen during one day of trading. I am now comfortable moving my investment and retirement money back into the S Fund-at 100%. I have four reasons: 1. While the market has been unstable, it seems to have found a general level of "resistance" making further major moves lower unlikely 2. Government stimulus looks to continue and the introduction of the infrastructure bill did not raise any surprises (I believe this will benefit the S more than the C Fund) 3. The Federal Reserve signaled multiple times over the last two months that it does not intend to raise rates in the near term 4. The F Fund 12 month average is the same as the G Fund 12 month average While there is definitely a great deal of uncertainty in the world in general, the markets have been able to deal with defaults (Archegos) larger than Long Term Capital Management with barely a hiccup (read the book if you haven't), dramatic shifts in trader activism (e.g., GME), and additional safe harbors (e.g., Bitcoin vs gold). I'm still concerned about rising inflation, I see it every week at the grocery store and Home Depot, but until bonds start to beat real inflation numbers, investors will continue to invest in equities. Keep Investing!