February 2021

Allocation Percentages for February 2021
F Fund

100%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

0%

I Fund

0%

I?ll get right to the point. I?m moving all my new contributions and existing TSP investments to the F Fund for February. I am concerned enough about the moves in the market right now that any upside gains we might see in February would come with significant risk. January was a solid month for the S Fund, but I see systemic risk right now causing significant levels of uncertainty, and with uncertainty comes volatility and risk. The contributors to this uncertainty are as follows: - Game Stop. Not the company per se, but what we discovered about the market dynamics facing us in 2021. The traders exploited a hedge fund taking excessive risk, and I think a traffic accident is going to happen ahead of us. The drivers of this accident are (1) Low interest rates (drives asset inflation), (2) Stimulus checks (free money (not unlike low interest rates), (3) Newly tapped communication methods (hive mind) (4) Lockdown (limited outlets for disposable income - bars, trips, etc.), and last, but not least, (5) Populism (rebellion against the system, no matter the consequences). Investigations and new regulations have been demanded, which can be highly disruptive as everyone will have to adapt to the new changes. - Executive Orders (EO). President Biden has signed over 24 EOs. Unfortunately, unlike actual laws, EOs are more ambiguous, lack legal standing in some cases, and can cause legal actions creating more uncertainty on certain industries, Oil and Gas, just to name one. If I was a trader, I would say get into the market and exploit the volatility, but I?m not. I want certainty and low volatility. I?m going to pump the breaks as I just saw a Ford Mustang cut off a Ferrari. I continue to keep investing, just in the bonds and the F Fund for now.
           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2025-04-29 27.0320 13.9021 50.6007 15.2304 57.7904 15.8483 34.7994 17.4179 17.4158 17.4136 10.3209 19.0288 20.1062 88.2075 81.8246 45.5389
2025-04-28 26.9910 13.8801 50.4439 15.1787 57.5778 15.7861 34.6549 17.3341 17.3320 17.3299 10.2712 19.0266 20.0564 87.6983 81.3156 45.4041
Daily Change 0.15%0.16%0.31%0.34%0.37%0.39%0.42%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.01%0.25%0.58%0.63%0.3%
Month to Date 0.63%0.64%0.84%0.87%0.88%0.89%0.9%0.89%0.89%0.89%0.89%0.34%0.44%-0.83%-0.33%3.87%
Year to Date 1.09%1.02%0.31%0.17%0.01%-0.13%-0.28%-0.94%-0.94%-0.94%-0.92%1.46%3.22%-5.08%-9.24%8.69%
Details L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
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