January 2021

Allocation Percentages for January 2021
F Fund

0%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

100%

I Fund

0%

Goodbye 2020! TSP had an impressive run this year with positive double-digit returns for the C and S Funds. However, a major driver of the incredible returns is the Federal Reserve pumping money into the market to bolster the economy. This in turn will lead to inflation down the road. When it will hit, and how high inflation will go, is anyone's guess, but money cannot be dumped into an economy without corresponding inflation. As a result, these returns, when compared to past and future years, may need to be tempered somewhat as it was definitely not a standard year. As for my returns, I had a record setting year with 37.5%. The excess alpha generated this year was in no small part due to the use of the F Fund. As I have explained in previous posts and emails to some of my subscribers, I use the F Fund (not the G Fund) as a safe harbor, and this year, I used it exactly for that purpose. Of course, the other major driver for this year was the S Fund. As you can see from the table at left, while the standard deviation (risk) of the S Fund is incredibly high, the Sortino Standard Deviation (upside risk) is also equally high. These are lagging indicators to be sure, but they detail the tremendous activity in the S Fund this year. Moving forward to 2021, I am remaining in the S Fund for January. However, I think the risk of remaining in the S Fund is higher in January than in previous months due to the expected profit taking and fear of a market pull-back, so make sure you understand your risk tolerance. My expectation for 2021 is for the market to return to "normal" with a slightly better than average chance of having a return of 9%, a slightly less than average chance of being -5% to +8%, and almost no chance of having a year like we just had. Happy New Year and Keep Investing!
           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2025-04-29 27.0320 13.9021 50.6007 15.2304 57.7904 15.8483 34.7994 17.4179 17.4158 17.4136 10.3209 19.0288 20.1062 88.2075 81.8246 45.5389
2025-04-28 26.9910 13.8801 50.4439 15.1787 57.5778 15.7861 34.6549 17.3341 17.3320 17.3299 10.2712 19.0266 20.0564 87.6983 81.3156 45.4041
Daily Change 0.15%0.16%0.31%0.34%0.37%0.39%0.42%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.01%0.25%0.58%0.63%0.3%
Month to Date 0.63%0.64%0.84%0.87%0.88%0.89%0.9%0.89%0.89%0.89%0.89%0.34%0.44%-0.83%-0.33%3.87%
Year to Date 1.09%1.02%0.31%0.17%0.01%-0.13%-0.28%-0.94%-0.94%-0.94%-0.92%1.46%3.22%-5.08%-9.24%8.69%
Details L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
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