October 2021

Well, that was a rough month. No safe harbor for any investments in the TSP portfolio. I have been warning since January 2021 inflation was coming. Despite the PR campaign to say it was not sticky, it seems to have stuck. We have been over 5% since May, and we are at 5.3% as of the last monthly reporting. Translation, if you are not earning over 5.3% in returns, you are making negative returns. This makes the G and the F Fund substantially negative for the year and the real returns for the C and S look tamer at 10.6% and 6.3%, respectively. As of this writing, our elected representatives have approved the continuing resolution to keep our government running, something that affects us all, and they will vote later tonight on the infrastructure bill. The infrastructure bill initially looked like it had support when proposed months ago, but the increase to $3.5T seems untenable. Undoubtably, even the $1.5T bill will unleash a massive amount of artificial stimulus that will spur on the economy, but will also add to our debt and increase inflation even more. This type of spending and inflation, if coupled with growth, can lead to a stronger economy. However, it could also lead to a quick sugar high, followed by a crash and inflation-otherwise known as stagflation. I still think in the short-term investors will in continue to seek returns higher than inflation, and the only place to do that is in the market itself (outside other creative investment vehicles we do not have access to in the TSP). Long-term, we need a return-to-work policy and a concerted effort to keep inflation at the target 2%. Keep investing!